As I examine the probability and historic aspects of this Presidential election, it is evident it is Obama’s race to lose. John McCain continues to alienate himself from the Conservative base and sounds more like a Reagan Democrat than a Republican. The fact McCain will let the Bush tax cuts stand, is his only redeeming value to this point and that won’t be enough to defeat Obama.

If you accept my premise, there is a much larger question that is looming over this coming election. Will Obama Save America? 

As we see American giant Anheuser Busch being sold to a Belgium company, it is only the beginning of the wholesale purchase of our country. The American dollar is on life support and perennial US powerhouses such as Ford and GM are listing, like a ship with a hole in the hull. Unemployment is steadily growing and the sudden flood of over qualified workers into the market is making it impossible for the average Joe/Jane to find suitable employment. Add to that the rising costs of gas, food, utilities and borrowing and you have the formula for disaster in our nation.  

The Federal government has just announced their willingness to support mortgage juggernauts Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in order to avert their demise due to the unbelievable default rate from the lending bust. This too is an indicator of the peril the US now find itself awashed in. I could definitely go on describing individual sectors of our economy that are in distress and how bleak the outlook is, but that isn’t the purpose of this post. Barack Obama built one of the strongest grassroots campaigns in history based on his messageof change, but will his brand of change get us back on the right track?

It doesn’t take a Wharton Business School Economist to realize what will put the brakes on our sliding economy and how America can get back on the path of being a world leader, but will our new leader be willing to travel that path at the risk of alienating the people who elected him. The simple truths of the matter is we need serious and deep reform in the areas of job creation, oil dependence, and goverment spending.

Job Creation

Whether you agree with outsourcing or not, you can’t deny the cause has more to do with the punitive nature of our corporate tax system, than some evil plan to cheat the American worker out of a decent wage. Doing business in the United States is increasingly becoming cost prohibitive; our corporate tax rate is the highest among industrialized nations (40%) and policies such as Sarbannes Oxley impose regulations that further deteriorate profitability through forced compliance.

Of course, there are those who think a company should pay higher wages for its employees, even to the detriment of investors. However, we in the real world understand the burden of corporate taxes makes it impossible to offer a competitive wage, product, and gain market share globally. Therefore, the simple solution is to partner with firms outside of the US who can produce products or offer services at a much more competitive rate or sell to a company where the tax burdens are less and reap an immediate reward.

What President Obama will have to do is argue for the elimination of corporate taxes and incentives and allow US companies to be more competitive in the world. In fact, if  corporate taxes were eliminated in the US more countries would want to locate their manufacturing here. Imagine the concept of coming to the US to build a factory during a time when your currency is stronger and there are greatly reduced tax consequences. The problem is that kind of philosophy goes against the grain of the Liberal agenda. A stronger nation would insist on a decrease in the size of government, a balanced budget, less government spending and lower taxes…all of which are contrary to Obama’s most ardent supporters.

Oil dependence

There is no need to go into the long, drawn out argument of whether drilling off the coast of Florida and in Alaska would benefit us. The question is simply, is the so called "environmental impact" greater than the collapse of our infrastructure due to $6+ gas prices. It may take seven to ten years to reap the full benefits of drilling now, but the worldwide demand for oil is not going down. Also, with our innovative entreprenueral spirit, I’m certain it will not take seven to ten years to get the oil into our economy. Large companies and individual investors will work tirelessly to develop methods of finding, refining, and delivering our domestic oil to the American people.

A second area to decrease oil dependence is electric car technologies. We can discuss hydrofuels, ethanol, or wind and solar power, but nothing has as much immediate viability as battery cell technology. As I have researched the industry, I found there are several companies that produce electric cars, those who convert gas to electric cars and those who develop hybrids. The vehicles range in style from Scions to Porsche and range in price from $29,000 to $90,000. With the closing of many Ford and GM plants, President Obama could lobby Congress to offer tax incentives for Ford or GM to retool those plants for electric car conversions. The technology already exists so the largest expense would be expanding the techonology to a large scale operation. The benefit would be a cost reduction to the consumer as economy of scale brings down the cost of production. In the time it takes to retool and get the plants moving at capacity, private industry would begin to supply electric car charging stations. Venues such as malls an movie theaters will offer charging stations for consumers to use while they are using their facilities.

Government Spending

This issue is the cornerstone of the transition of the current system to what we will ultimately become. If we expand the size of government, we will begin the march toward a more Facist or Socialist form of governing. The government will supply needs such as healthcare, education, and housing and have partial ownership in businesses that supply jobs and manufacturing. Private industry will be replaced by a large cumbersome underperforming govenmental agency.

Social Security, Medicare, and other entitlement programs make up nearly 63% of the current years budget. Yet there is a strident reluctance to even suggest ways to bring it to managable levels. President Obama could remove all of the duplicate offices and ineffective departments such as the Department of Education, Interior, and the IRS. In turn, states would be given more power to decide what is best for them, which is the way it was intended. The federal government will oversee decisions to maintain rights given under the Constitution and to offer support in exreme cases of legislative empass. Obama could then set a goal of 10% of GDP as the operating budget for the federal government and term limits to remove the temptation of earmarks for the career politician. 

In my opinion, Barack Obama is a very pragmatic person and will quickly see his place in history unfold in the coming administration. The question is will he go in the direction that will allow the country to continue faltering in order to gain more government power or will he opt for the historical perspective of the President who saved America? Only time will tell. 

Thought of the Day, Politics | 11 Comments »

Over the past few months, I have been listening to many of the Republican talk radio hosts trying their best to discredit Barak Obama. While I think that is par for the course, it has become increasingly obvious there is more there than meets the eye.  

When you consider how the average conservative feels about John McCain, it is no wonder there may be a concerted effort to have Hillary run against him in the general election . Hillary Clinton has plenty of "skeletons" and it would be easy to motivate the conservative base for her past indiscretions. In fact, many of the talking heads such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, have built a successful career on the Clintons and their listeners have enough righteous indignation to compensate for McCain’s luke warm conservatism.

On the other hand, the candidacy of Barak Obama defies all political and practical reasoning. If I may borrow a term from history, it would be the closest equivalent to "irrational exuberance", we have seen since the great dot.com boom. Obama’s popularity has attained an almost "god like" persona that has no real substantiation or track record of efficacy. His supporters are all too willing to overlook gaffs, political and social associations, as well as the lack of any major experience in a leadership role for  his brand of  "change".

While you would think the Republicans would be jumping at the chance to run against a "paper brick" candidate, Obama’s campaign brings fear instead. How do you defend against a campaign that is improbable and in many respects illogical? If McCain attacks too hard on inexperience, he will be perceived as the old guard resisting inevitable change. If he tries to make a stronger appeal to the white female  voters, he will be perceived as racist. Having Obama as a opponent represents far more challenges than are the case with Sen. Clinton and the Republicans know it.

The fallout over Reverend Wright and Obama’s comments in San Francisco have proven the Republicans can’t beat him in the court of public outrage, so other methods have been deployed. We had Rush Limbaugh asking Republican voters to crossover and vote for Hillary. We have Sean Hannity’s dogmatic insistence of Obama’s flawed character, inexperience, and controversial associations, not intended to sway public opinion, but to convince the Super Delegates Hillary is more electable.When Hillary Clinton was formulating her strategies for a run for the White House, I don’t think she could have imagined she would have allies in Rush and Sean, but as dubious as that relationship may be, "votes is votes".

Globalization is shrinking our world at an unbelievable rate. I saw a dance contest in Thailand on You Tube and the contestants were doing their best imitation of the Beyonce dance to American Hip Hop music. The prospect of the U.S. shedding it’s long standing reputation as an intolerant, bigoted, and sometimes racist country, is thrilling to the entreprenuers looking to expand into global markets. Electing a Black or  female president would go a long way to that end.

Once again, I am proud to be an American in times such as these and enjoying this political theater immensely.

Thought of the Day, Politics | 6 Comments »

Now that Barack Obama has won 11 straight caucuses and/or primaries and with so few states left, we political junkies are waiting for the other shoe to drop. If there is one thing I am certain of, it’s Hillary Clinton will not go down without a fight. Just as Doug Flutie delivered the ultimate "Hail Mary" for Boston College, the Clinton campaign will invariably make a last ditch effort to wrestle the Democratic nomination from Obama.

The question is what would it take to disallusion the Obama voters without cries of sandbagging or political skull duggery. We have heard of the move to have the delegates in Florida count and possibly having the people of Michigan vote again, but neither of those states will provide a decisive victory for Hillary. What the Clinton campaign needs is to find a skeleton that is so morally reprehensible, Jesse Jackson would remove his support. Short of that occurence, we can count on Hillary attacking Barack’s record and vision for the country, while feverishly digging for the aforementioned "head shot".

The Washington press core is already showing signs of Obama fatigue, but can’t deny the fever pitch of his supporters. It has become so bad Rush Limbaugh has called on Republicans to vote for Hillary in order to keep her in the race.

As I watch the end of 60 Minutes last evening, Andy Rooney was discussing the race for the presidency and in his commentary he asked why Barack or McCain would want to be President? Does that mean the race is already over? What about Hillary?

It will be interesting to see what manifests itself in the last few hours of Monday and if the Clintons are able to deliver a blow so mighty it sends the electorate to screaming to her camp. Until then, enjoy history in the making!

Politics | No Comments »